Carol Platt Liebau: Super Tuesday Wrap Up

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Super Tuesday Wrap Up

Since it's too early to call my new home state, California, let's start with my old home state, Missouri. Mike Huckabee did well in the southern part of Missouri, because he was governor of the neighboring state -- Arkansas. In a sense, southern Missouri is in many ways like northern Arkansas -- rural, Bible belt voters tailor made for someone like Huckabee. Mitt Romney did well in the upscale, traditional Republican counties attached to the cities (St. Louis county and Jackson County, outside Kansas City). McCain did well in the northern and middle of the state, rural and slightly less affluent than Romney territory.

Along with the northeastern states, McCain won only the "traditional Republican" states of Arizona and Oklahoma. Let's hope that all the Connecticut, New York, New Jersey and Delaware Republicans can bring their states into the McCain column this November if he ends up being the nominee. Possible, of course, but likely? What's more, it's hardly great news for McCain (or for conservatives nationally) that he lost conservatives even in his home state of Arizona -- it could suggest that for those on the right, to know McCain well is not particularly to love him.

Huckabee did well throughout the south. Is it because people there really felt an affinity with him, is it because the voters never felt comfortable with the much ballyhooed Romney "flip flops," or did Romney's Mormonism play into the equation somehow?

On the Democratic side, what a bitter night this must have been for Hlllary Clinton, who for so long thought she'd be claiming the nomination tonight. Barack Obama has performed well, and comes across as very, very likable.

It strikes me that on the Republican side, it all comes down to California. It's hard to see a way forward for Romney if he loses California to McCain, and hard to see how McCain loses the nomination if he wins California. If Romney wins California, he may have a chance to pull it out -- but McCain would remain the clear frontrunner.

As for the Democrats, a system that was designed to allow them to coalesce early around a candidate -- and start attacking the Republicans -- has seemed to do little but guarantee that a potentially divisive and bitter primary season drags on.

1 Comments:

Blogger Mr. Twister said...

Carol writes, Along with the northeastern states, McCain won only the "traditional Republican" states of Arizona and Oklahoma. Let's hope that all the Connecticut, New York, New Jersey and Delaware Republicans can bring their states into the McCain column this November if he ends up being the nominee.

I know not everyone here is interested in visiting The Great Orange Satan (i.e., Daily Kos), but DHinMI has a front page post there that discusses precisely the issue that Carol highlights above (and that I touched on last night--patting myself on the back). To minimize contamination you can jump to directly to the post by clicking on this link, right here. I think it is well worth the read.

Just for a quick taste, A comparable scenario on our side would be a three-way race where two candidates beat each other in the battles for IL and NY, NJ and CT, MN and MA, while a third candidate wins the nomination by getting huge numbers of delegates from AL and AK, ID and KS, ND and OK.

7:01 PM  

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