One other thing to remember as we all scrutinize the polls: What matters most are the polls of the battleground states. It wouldn't matter, for example, if Kerry received a "bounce" in national polls exclusively from voters who live in California -- because it's pretty clear that he's going to win California anyway. If the numbers were coming from Ohio and Florida, however, that would be a much more ominous sign, because those are swing states that the President needs to win.

Amid all the punditry noise, one way to gain a good overall sense of who truly has the advantage in the race is to look at which states are indeed considered battlegrounds. If Kerry suddenly reverses his decision to stop advertising in Missouri, Arizona, Louisiana and Arkansas, THEN it's time to worry. But a recent poll has Kerry ahead by only five points in New Jersey -- a state that Gore won by about 15 points! That, more than a snapshot or a flawed Newsweek poll, is the better way to look at what 's really going on.