Carol Platt Liebau: Ready to Gamble?

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Ready to Gamble?

A National Intelligence Estimate says Iran stopped making nukes in 2003, a finding welcomed as a victory by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Ehuk Barack, Defense Minister of Israel, says there's some evidence it was resumed after that.

The NIE report is being used as a rationale for doing nothing about Iran. Well, are Americans ready to gamble on Ahmadinejad's good will, and the same intelligence apparatus that turned out to be wrong in Iraq?

If we sit back and Iran develops a nuke, then the biggest fiasco to come out of Iraq will be the wrong lessons that have been drawn by the doves -- that it's a mistake ever to vigorously defend American interests.

This time, if the intelligence community is wrong once again, and Iran does develop and use a nuke, relying on faulty intelligence could cost infinitely more lives than what's happened in Iraq.

4 Comments:

Blogger Cliff said...

Bush can't win! First he is criticized for beliving the intelligence report then he is criticized for not beleving it!

2:00 PM  
Blogger The Very Sane Woman Who Points Out the Obvious said...

Carol,

You say, "If we sit back and let Iran develop a nuke..."

To get to that statement you have to spin a fair amount of Roshomonesque logic. You compare this NIE report to the prewar intelligence used tro get us in a war with Iraq.

Remember that the intelligence back then was picked and massaged to get the conclusion that Dick Cheney wanted. Remember that we learned from the Downing Street memos that the intelligence was being made to fit the policy. The more recent memos that we've gotten from Spain back this up.

This is a false comparrison that you're making.

8:50 AM  
Blogger Cliff said...

The Very Sane Woman Who Points Out the Obvious said...
Carol,"Remember that we learned from the Downing Street memos that the intelligence was being made to fit the policy."

Sane Woman, there were TWO Downing Street memos, the first one was unofficial and was proven to be a forgery. The second one, the authentic and official one, came out from Downing Street in order to clarify the distortions in the first one and clear their name and reputation. In the official one, Downing Street intentionally emphasized their finding that Saddam WAS in fact seeking uranium from Africa.

You also need to understand that the word, "fix" in England, means, "attach to." While over here, the word was misunderstood to mean, "Distort" (accidently, of course!)

10:32 AM  
Blogger The Very Sane Woman Who Points Out the Obvious said...

Cliff,

No one has seriously challenged the authenticity of the memos.

"Fix" does have the connotation of fraudulence in British English.

Do you doubt that Jack Straw said that the evidence for Iraq having mass destruction weapons "was thin" but that George W. Bush had "made up his mind" to take military action?

If you doubt that, then we cannot have a rational discussion on this.

11:07 PM  

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