Iraq(s)?
This is guest blogger Wile E Coyote.
An article in today's New York Times reports that recent success in pacifying and providing security to Sunni areas of Iraq may not survive the withdrawal of US troops because of indifference or hostility from the Shia-led Iraqi government.
A rational Iraqi government would know that Al Qaeda will rush to fill any security vaccuum. A competent Iraqi government would do something about it.
This government may be one of the other, or neither. The surge's success will create the conditions for a political accord. Whether this means a pluralistic Iraq, or partition into three states remains to be seen. Iraq is a state made up after World War I of three provinces of the Ottoman empire. Partition would be the pattern of the former Yugoslavia. But, given the neighbors of the three new states, long-term positioning of US, NATO or other troops is highly likely.
An article in today's New York Times reports that recent success in pacifying and providing security to Sunni areas of Iraq may not survive the withdrawal of US troops because of indifference or hostility from the Shia-led Iraqi government.
A rational Iraqi government would know that Al Qaeda will rush to fill any security vaccuum. A competent Iraqi government would do something about it.
This government may be one of the other, or neither. The surge's success will create the conditions for a political accord. Whether this means a pluralistic Iraq, or partition into three states remains to be seen. Iraq is a state made up after World War I of three provinces of the Ottoman empire. Partition would be the pattern of the former Yugoslavia. But, given the neighbors of the three new states, long-term positioning of US, NATO or other troops is highly likely.
posted by LadybugUSA at 9:50 AM
1 Comments:
It's the impossible politics that make a solution to this issue impossible. There are three groups that hate and distrust each other, and they simply refuse to work together. It is conceivable that someday, decades hence, they would work it all out, but my guess is that the result we will end up with is an Iraq dominated by the Shias, in close association with Iran. The Turks simply will not permit an independent Kurdistan, and the Sunnis expect far more than their political weight can give them.
The solution I'd like to see is a partition into three states, but that simply isn't politically possible.
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