A Turn Out Tool?
In a story larded with speculation but substantiated with very few hard facts, The Washington Post notes that it's possible that the Republicans might lose the House -- or not.
Pieces like this reflect two competing impulses: Lip-smacking glee over the potential Republican defeat, tempered by CYA caution, just in case the predictions don't come true this time (as they didn't in '02 and '04). That's why we know that Republicans could lose as many as 30 seats on the on hand, but might hold the House on the other -- because of redistricting, you see.
Note that the Republicans' predictions in the story are gloomier than the Democrats'. That's because, to a large extent, this has to do with an expectations game, and ultimate success will turn on which party is better able to turn out its loyalists. Wouldn't it be ironic if alarmist stories like the Post's actually succeed in getting Republicans to turn out to vote, despite some of their complaints about the party and its leaders?
Pieces like this reflect two competing impulses: Lip-smacking glee over the potential Republican defeat, tempered by CYA caution, just in case the predictions don't come true this time (as they didn't in '02 and '04). That's why we know that Republicans could lose as many as 30 seats on the on hand, but might hold the House on the other -- because of redistricting, you see.
Note that the Republicans' predictions in the story are gloomier than the Democrats'. That's because, to a large extent, this has to do with an expectations game, and ultimate success will turn on which party is better able to turn out its loyalists. Wouldn't it be ironic if alarmist stories like the Post's actually succeed in getting Republicans to turn out to vote, despite some of their complaints about the party and its leaders?
posted by LadybugUSA at 9:07 AM
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