One more reason to view polls with suspicion and just keep on working: "Kerry Unable to Gain Ground In New Jersey" and "Kerry Solidies Lead in New Jersey" -- both polls of registered and likely New Jersey voters over the same time period, yet showing very different results.

But there are reasons for optimism: "Poll: Bush Doubles Suport Among Blacks".

And as two lovely bookends dissecting the Kerry campaign, see David Yepsen's piece in The Des Moines Register and David Brooks' piece in The New York Times.

Of particular interest in Yepsen's piece is his observation that "For many Americans, particularly rural Americans, Kerry just can't say he's "one of us." Showing up and asking "Can I get me a hunting license here?" isn't going to do the trick. As one "rural" character said in a television sitcome once, "I may talk funny, but I ain't stupid."

The Brooks and Yepsen pieces are stories by judicious, respectable voices that any campaign would shudder to read two weeks out from an election. They're not good news for Kerry, who needs the illusion of momentum to get Democrats (who are not overwhelmed with him as it is) to the polls -- and not for Nader.