Carol Platt Liebau: Don't Look Now, But . . .

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Don't Look Now, But . . .

13 Comments:

Blogger Chepe Noyon said...

This is definitely good news but, with only 3 killed and 90 captured, it doesn't seem like a big deal. Your pointing it out makes it seem that you're grasping at straws.

11:21 AM  
Blogger Earth to Carol said...

VICTORY

Post pics if you have any.

1:40 PM  
Blogger Carol Platt Liebau said...

Coyote here.

Chepe,

The high ratio of captured to killed (90:3), including three senior leaders, shows lack of fanatic motivation.

Assuming a killed-to-wounded ratio of 8:1, the Al Qaedi forces took 30% casualties. By comparison, Japanese casualty rates ran between 97% in Saipan and 99.7% in Tarawa.

This news therefore leads one to wonder how morale fares among the enemy.

Your using terms like "only" and "doesn't seem like a big deal" makes it seem you are grasping at straws to contradict Carol or to see a black lining in a silver cloud.

1:54 PM  
Blogger Carol Platt Liebau said...

Coyote here.

The killed-to-wounded ratio in the above comment should be 1:8, not 8:1.

1:55 PM  
Blogger Carol Platt Liebau said...

An arithmetically challenged Coyote here.

Four senior leaders captured. 80 fighters "arrested". Three killed.

Assumed wounded of 24 (8x3). Total assumed casualties = 27. Casualty rate of 33% (27/83).

2:10 PM  
Blogger Chepe Noyon said...

Your using terms like "only" and "doesn't seem like a big deal" makes it seem you are grasping at straws to contradict Carol or to see a black lining in a silver cloud.

No, my point is that this is not a terribly important event. This is not the turning point in the war. This is a small bit of good news, but not anything remarkable. There are lots of little bits of good news coming out of Iraq each day; I see no reason to single out this one as anything special. (There are also lots of little bits of bad news, too, and I don't think it's worthwhile to single out any of those, either.)

3:24 PM  
Blogger Earth to Carol said...

Very likely a dog & pony show to assist Bush's speech tonight. They'll likely release all those captured within a week.

4:01 PM  
Blogger Greg said...

I have a question for you, Chepe.

ETC made the following quote:

"Very likely a dog & pony show to assist Bush's speech tonight. They'll likely release all those captured within a week."

Are you going to demand that ETC produce evidence to support the suggestion that this incident was not a REAL battle and that enemy combatants were not REALLY captured, but instead this was only staged for public comsumption?

If not, why not?

6:29 AM  
Blogger Chepe Noyon said...

Greg, ETC's claim is inherently unprovable because it refers to the psychological state of individuals. It's a waste of time to argue about the psychological states of political actors. What matters is the objective reality. Hence I consider ETC's claim irrelevant to the issue.

8:56 AM  
Blogger Greg said...

While I certainly agree that ETC's comments are generally irrelevaent, I am missing the connection between ETC's baseless claims and anyone's pshycological state or any "political actors". Unless, of course, you're trying to say something about ETC's psychological state :-)

To which political actors and to whose psychological state do you think ETC was referring.

11:22 AM  
Blogger Earth to Carol said...

Chepe Noyon doesn't explain why an irrelevant event made the news. I suggest it is a political stunt. This is an opinion which happens to match much of the content of this website. But I guess right-wing opinions are fact based until proven to be lies.

A political stunt is not a psychological state.

7:40 PM  
Blogger Chepe Noyon said...

The reference to the military operation as a 'dog and pony show' makes a statement about the intentions of the people who ordered the operation.

8:10 PM  
Blogger Marshall Art said...

I think considering the fact that AlQueda doesn't attack in much larger forces, this capture of 90 is a fairly big deal. You're not going to see a Battle for Iwo Jima. Usually just skirmishes. In the context of how this enemy fights, this is a relatively big deal. As to it's impact on the entire war, any defeat of this size for AlQueda will have a negative one. They trumpet any victory they can, so any defeat of this size has to be somewhat demoralizing. ETC likes to believe this is some kind of staged event, but that's a typical comment from him. And against all the negative news that has been reported over the years, it's always nice to hear something like this. We need to trumpet OUR victories and the victories of the Iraqi army as well. The lack of such reporting has demoralized our own country.

10:27 PM  

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