Carol Platt Liebau: The Numbers and the Tea Leaves

Thursday, June 14, 2007

The Numbers and the Tea Leaves

Here is the newest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll. It shows Giuliani at 29%, Thompson at 20% and McCain and Romney tied at 14%.

Once again, I'd point out that Romney and Giuliani have no particular reason to be upset about the relatively strong Thompson showing. At this point, Thompson is the functional equivalent of the "other" check-off box -- a repository for any disgruntled voter's misty dreams of the perfect candidate. It's hard to see how, once Thompson actually has to get into the race and take a policy position or two, he's going to increase his support rather than diminishing it.

Rudy's doing great, and Romney's coming along fine, too, especially given his leading status in two crucial early states -- Iowa and New Hampshire. But no wonder the McCain folks are lashing out at Romney -- two months ago, Romney was at 12% and McCain was at 22%. What a difference a couple of months and a terrible immigration bill can make.


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