Reading the Tea Leaves

Over at Real Clear Politics, Tom Bevan has written:

[T]urnout appears to be heavy in the suburbs outside St. Louis (St. Louis county) which may or may not be bad news for Talent. I'm told turnout in the city of St. Louis and the metro area of Kansas City is looking to be about average for a midterm. And turnout in SW MO, which is the Republican stronghold where President Bush visited last week, also appears to be heavy, which is good news for Talent.

This is consistent with what I'm hearing as well. If there's a heavy turnout in SW Mo, that's all good; there had been concerns about GOTV around Springfield, which may end up having been baseless.

As for the St. Louis county suburbs, it's hard to know what the heavy turnout means. Many of these are fairly affluent suburbs, which are generally Republican, but occasionally tend toward "country club" moderation.

It's worth noting on the up side, though, that Talent's old congressional district is in the St. Louis suburbs, so heavy turnout there is probably a good thing for him. Even so, it's also true that it's an area that may well be voting in favor of Amendment 2 (pro-embryonic stem cell research). The area is the home base of former Senator Jack Danforth (who's treated as something of a patron saint), for example, and he's been a heavy pro-2 proponent, in contrast to Talent, who opposed it.

If there's any comfort, though, the St. Louis county voters are likely savvy enough to know how to split a ballot.