Carol Platt Liebau: Hoping Against Hope

Sunday, October 22, 2006

Hoping Against Hope

Ronald Brownstein writes hopefully that the Democrats can take the Senate -- if only Harold Ford can win in Tennessee, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, and Jim Webb in Virginia.

Let's take the easiest first. George Allen has increasingly been building and holding a five-point lead against Webb. It's hardly the kind of race and the kind of margin that a potential presidential aspirant had hoped for, but it's certainly more solid and consistent than the lead that, according to Brownstein, indicates that New Jersey will pick corruption-tainted incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez over moderate Republican challenger Tom Kean, Jr.

In Missouri, Jim Talent is going to pull it out. The Show-Me state is a bellwether, but Claire McCaskill -- who supports giving habeas corpus and Geneva Convention protections to terrorist detainees, who won't release her husband's tax returns, and who said that President Bush had left New Orleans residents to die "because they were poor and because they were black" -- is going to have a hard time getting the rural votes she needs, despite her frenzied courting of these voters. No fear that Jim Talent -- a smart senator and a good man -- won't have the resources to let voters know about all McCaskill's gaffes . . . plus the new allegations about the nonprofit ACORN campaigning for McCaskill (and any revelations that emerge about possible links between ACORN and the McCaskill campaign). He's got $12.6 million to her $7 million.

Finally, Tennessee. Harold Ford has given Bob Corker a run for his money, but it seems likely that Corker is going to pull it out in the end. It seems to me that, in the end, Tennesseeans aren't going to take a chance on Ford, despite his supposed moderation. As this video (hit link labeled "Ford Crashes Corker presser") illustrates, Harold Ford made a big mistake in trying to crash his opponent's press conference. Southerners are kindly, courteous folk, with a highly developed sense of decorum -- and this stunt (and others like it) are, I think, likely to erode the kind of voter comfort with Ford that a Democrat needs to win in a Red State. Update: So will ads like this one -- ouch! (HT: Powerline).

No doubt all this could change if yet another anti-Republican shoe drops over the next two weeks. But for now, it seems more than likely that, despite the Dems' and MSM's fondest hopes, the Senate should remain in Republican hands.


Blogger stackja1945 said...

"Dems' and MSM's fondest hopes"

Carol, since when has there been a difference between Dems and MSM?
How long would the Dems survive if not for the oxygen from the MSM? Or should I say how long would the Dems flowers flourish if not for the manure from the MSM?

5:55 PM  

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