Carol Platt Liebau

Monday, November 01, 2004

Readers Denise and Thomas Anthony Longo have compoiled a truly impressive list of reasons why Bush is better positioned than Kerry. Here are some excerpts:

"Item #1: GOTV: GOP is doing this right with VOLUNTEERS, dems are hiring workers, paying in crack, fraudulent registrations, Ickes (ACT), ACORN.

. . .

Item #3: High Republican voter enthusiasm. Bush voters are voting for Bush, Kerry’s voters are voting against Bush, i.e. not as motivated.

Item #4: 30 states have a Gay Rights/Marriage protection Issue on the state ballot. This issue has highly motivated voters. 70-80% turn out to vote against gay marriage.

. . .

Item #6: Kerry and Edwards are attorneys. (Note from CPL: This one tickles me -- I'm an attorney, too!)

Item #7: Some of his biggest supporters are historical losers.

All of Michael Moore’s candidates have lost . . .
All Bob Shrum’s clients have lost.

Item #8: We are at war. 66% of voters feel uneasy about changing CIC mid- war.

Item #9: John Howard won re-election in Australia, Putin has come out for Bush; Arafat has come out for Kerry.

Item #10: 9-11-2001.

Item #11: Voters sick of voter fraud, 60% afraid of “courts” determining election results. Apprehensive voters could vote for Bush just to insure a large margin of victory!

DNC has over 10,000 lawyers standing by, 6 chartered jets to be within one hour of anywhere in the US to file legal action.

Ashcroft and states attorneys have been funding and pursuing voter fraud for four years, and these problems are being addressed and resolved before the vote.
Shot out windows, stolen and burglarized offices across country, signs being stolen and vandalized.
Democrats allege voter intimidation that cannot be demonstrated.
Real violence is happening against GOP by Dem. Supporters.

. . .

Item #13: Well known Democrats endorse Bush:

Ed Koch

Ron Silver
Dennis Miller
Zell “give ‘em Hell” Miller
Mayors around the country including St. Paul MN mayor Randy Kelly
Reps. Rodney Alexander (D-La.), Allen Boyd (D-Fla.), Jim Marshall (D-Ga.), Jim Matheson (D-Utah) and Dennis Moore (D-Kan.)
A Baldwin brother

Item #14: Bush won in 2000:

The census would give Bush a larger victory if he merely maintains the states he won last time.

Twice as many blacks have said they will vote for Bush
Gender gap is a democrat problem. Bush polls well with women.
The military vote supports him by 3 to 1 margin
Bush is polling up with young people. They are split evenly
Up even higher with men, Kerry has male gender gap.
Jews are going to come out for Bush as well as the Amish who have NEVER VOTED LIKE THIS BEFORE and are not being polled.

. . .

Now for the Historical Factors for a Kerry win:

1: Stock market is lower than the Labor Day numbers.

2: Al Gore did win the popular vote in 2000.

3: Presidents job approval numbers are at 50% or lower (CPL: in most polls, not all).

4: Conventional wisdom (if correct but it's not) undecided’s break for Kerry." (CPL: I agree with the Longo's -- internals of the CBS/NY Times poll show that undecideds lean to Bush 50% to 47%).

Thanks to the Longo's -- what are your thoughts???


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